EU – Turkey Relations: Mapping landmines and exploring alternative pathways

Turkey will be a persistent headache for EU leaders in the years to come. The deterioration of Turkey’s political, economic and security dynamics will raise pressure. EU leaders will need to make decisions on the continuation of the accession negotiations, the modernisation of the Customs Union and visa liberalisation. The EU may need to react to crises and provocations. The most likely scenario for the future of EU–Turkey relations for the next five years is the continuation of some sort of fragile, conflictual or uneasy cooperation. There is a need to think about the best way to deal with this uncertainty, as EU–Turkey is a minefield. In order not to suffer an unwanted and mutually damaging accident we should know where those mines are laid and how to circumvent or disarm them. Different options and alternative pathways lie ahead of us.

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