Warning: Undefined variable $attachedEventHTML in /var/www/vhosts/feps-europe.eu/staging.feps-europe.eu/wp-content/themes/fepseuropetheme/template-parts/content-post.php on line 383
The Progressive Post
Elections in Bulgaria – from uncertainty to instability in times when a common vision for the future is most needed
Sociologist and political analyst, board member of Institute for Social Integration (ISI) – Sofia
23/03/2017
Almost two and a half years after the last parliamentary election, Bulgaria is facing another round of preliminary voting for the National Assembly on 26th of March 2017. How did the country come to this point…again?
After a sequence of unstable coalitions and hard to manage governments (the last full term government held a mandate between 2005 and 2009, Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev) and internal changes in the party system, the Bulgarian political elite is facing one and the same challenge – how to deal with fragmented political space and emerging new parties, while still trying to overcome the consequences of the financial and economic crisis of being the poorest EU member state at the same time.
In November 2016, Bulgarians elected a new president – Rumen Radev. He is a former Commander of the Bulgarian air force and his candidacy was supported by the biggest opposition party at the time – Bulgarian Socialist party (BSP). This led to the resignation of the coalition government. This was announced after the election day by the former prime minister and leader of the biggest right-wing party GERB – Boyko Borisov.
In past months there has been strong mobilisation of votes from both parties and it appears that the electoral potential of BSP and GERB is around equal just a week before the election.
According to Sofia based research agency AFIS, both parties will each have around 35 % of the Parliament seats. The rest will be split between smaller coalitions from the entire political spectrum – from right wing conservatives, through liberal oriented parties supported mainly from ethnic Turkish minority, to nationalist and Eurosceptic coalition.
According to the Institute for Social Integration (Sofia based NGO, conducting in partnership with FEPS the Monitoring of the election process, including media monitoring[1]) both parties – BSP and GERB – dominate the national media landscape during the pre-election campaign. Other political parties are far beyond this domination and are covered rarely by media significantly, compared to GERB and BSP.
It is important to mention that a shift in the narrative of both parties is visible by analysing their election platforms and their main messages translated through media. GERB switched their narrative from a traditional neo-liberal perspective to more social oriented policies, with stress upon pensions, healthcare and education policies, including increase of general income and minimum monthly salary. At the same time, BSP shifted from social topics and started a more tradition-oriented policy, including security of national borders from illegal migrants and third country nationals, fostering State control in order to support national economy, national production protective policies and last but not least – more critical statements towards the EU and Brussels.
Apparently, the aim for both parties is mobilising non-traditional voters, which might help win the battle on 26th of March. So far the chances are even and the winner, regardless of who it will be, will have minimum electoral advantage.
This leads to the most important and logical question – what will happen after the elections? One possible scenario is establishing either a left wing- centred coalition around BSP, or a right wing – centred coalition around GERB, together with two or three of the smaller political parties. In both cases this would lead to an ineffective parliament and an unstable government, starting with very low levels of public trust.
Another possible scenario is establishing a broad left-right coalition between the two major parties. This would lead to a more stable government but according to the latest polls conducted by AFIS, only 9% of the Bulgarian population prefers this kind of development, therefore it might negatively influence the general support for BSP and GERB.
These would be the third preliminary parliamentary elections for the past 4 years in Bulgaria. The internal political situation and the unstable developments in the Balkans for the past months indicate that now, more than ever, the country needs functioning institutions and government. This is of crucial importance especially in the context of the forthcoming Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of EU starting in the beginning of 2018.
XThis website uses cookies. Some cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of the website and cannot be refused if you wish to visit the website.
Other cookies are used for Advertisement and Analytics (Sharing on social networks, video playing, analysis and statistics, personalized advertising ...) You can refuse them if you want to. REJECTACCEPTCookie settings
Manage consent
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
Cookie
Duration
Description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement
1 year
Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category .
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional
11 months
The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
csrftoken
past
This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks
JSESSIONID
session
The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application.
viewed_cookie_policy
11 months
The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Cookie
Duration
Description
__cf_bm
30 minutes
This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management.
S
1 hour
Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics.
sp_landing
1 day
The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content.
sp_t
1 year
The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Cookie
Duration
Description
CONSENT
2 years
YouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data.
iutk
session
This cookie is used by Issuu analytic system to gather information regarding visitor activity on Issuu products.
s_vi
2 years
An Adobe Analytics cookie that uses a unique visitor ID time/date stamp to identify a unique vistor to the website.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Cookie
Duration
Description
NID
6 months
NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE
5 months 27 days
A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface.
YSC
session
YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages.
yt-remote-connected-devices
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt-remote-device-id
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt.innertube::nextId
never
This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.
yt.innertube::requests
never
This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.