The future of armaments, disarmaments and human security

In partnership with the Karl Renner Institut, the Olof Palme International Center and the Fondation Jean-Jaurès, FEPS launched the foresight project ‘The long-term implications of the war in Ukraine‘ with the aim of reflecting on the mid-to-long-term consequences of this conflict. This project consists of a series of high-level seminars in the format of expert roundtable discussions, each addressing the impact of the war in Ukraine on distinct aspects of the international agenda and the global order at large. Previous expert roundtables within the foresight series addressed the long-term implications of the war for energy and green transitions, global governance, as well as trade and global supply chains.

The 4th expert roundtable focused on the future of armaments, disarmament and human security, and we discussed issues like the prospects for arms control, disarmament, non-proliferation, technological innovation, conflict prevention, and human security.    

This expert, by-invitation-only roundtable took place on  Tuesday, 25 April 2023, from 13:30 to 17:10 CET, at FEPS headquarters  located on Avenue des Arts 46, 5^th floor, 1000 Brussels. The Chatham House rule applied. 

The objective of this seminar was to focus on the impact of the war on peace and security. Among others, these are guiding questions to be addressed in the discussions: 

• What factors or actors could help reinvigorate arms control and non-proliferation regimes?
• What are the long-term implications of defence technological innovation for peace and security?
• How might growing levels of confrontation and mistrust on the international stage affect human security and drivers of conflict in the long term?
• What emerging risks for state and societal resilience?

To bring in the foresight perspective, the participants were invited to address what factors and actors will shape developments ahead, uncertainties and potential wild cards, as well as implications for the EU.

The seminar was divided into two sessions, where all participants had the opportunity to take part in an interactive debate.

• The first session was dedicated to trends in armament, disarmament and technology.
• The second session adressed the drivers of instability and human security.

Among the speakers:

• Alexander Kmentt, Director of the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Department, Austrian Foreign Ministry
• Raluca Csernatoni, Research Fellow, Carnegie Europe and Guest professor, Brussels School of Governance (BSoG)
• Anna Sundström, Secretary General, Olof Palme International Centre
• Rory Keane, Head of Office, United Nations Liaison Office for Peace and Security
• László Andor, Secretary-General, FEPS
• Giovanni Grevi, Special Advisor to the Foresight Project and Senior Fellow, CSDS, Brussels School of Governance

Moderation by Giovanni Grevi and Andriy Korniychuk, Post-doctoral Fellow, FEPS.

For more information, please contact Thainá Leite, FEPS Project Officer, at thaina.leite@feps-europe.eu.